On 26th of August 2007, TOI announced that India has crossed the GDP size of USD 1 Trillion. From being a USD 500 bn economy in 2000-01, it took merely 6 years to double in size. It was a big feat and reasons to celebrate.
Since independence, India took 54 years to reach the first USD 500 bn, and then just 6 years to add the next USD 500 bn. Somewhere in 2014, it took just 7 years to add the next trillion when India surpassed the USD 2 Trillion mark. These numbers may look astonishing to many but not for those, who understands the effect of compounding in the long term. With 12% p.a. NOMINAL GDP (Real GDP rate + Inflation) growth rate, economies like India would double up every 6 years. Sometimes, Real GDP contributes more, and other times it is inflation. Not to undermine that currency fluctuations also play a major role.
It’s been 5 years since then, and India stands at USD 2.89 Trillion. India’s growth engine is running slow, otherwise we would had already crossed USD 3 Trillion mark. As soon as India comes back to its normal pattern of growth, India should become a USD 5 Trillion economy by 2023-2024, a USD 10 Trillion by 2030, and so on. All this is possible for next 20 -30 years, as India has high potential for growth (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180843-s-curve-signalling-major-bull-market-commodities-and-india), unless our politicians play havoc with it.
My view is that unless we are going into a prolonged recession, USD 5 Trillion economy over next 4-5 years is inevitable. It will be a gross underachievement if we miss it. Imagine how crucial next 5 years are from investment perspective. If economy becomes nearly double, so will be the stock markets and may be property prices with a lag. We only need common sense economics from the politicians, and common sense investments from investors. Rest shall be taken care of by Indian economic juggernaut !!